Trends to Consider When Making a Midlife Career Change: Energy

This is the seventh and final column in our series of seven that look at the macro trends to consider when making a midlife career change. Energy is the one of the single greatest problems and perhaps one of the single greatest opportunities in the world today. No matter what new career path you are thinking of embarking upon in midlife, it is essential that you stop and consider the energy aspect of this new direction.

The economy of the U.S. has, over the last 150 years, been based upon cheap fossil fuels. It is only in the last 25 years that energy has become a significant cost line item in the business or household budget. Prior to the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, oil was $1.50 a barrel. It is now sitting around $80 a barrel. So in the last 34 years oil has increased 5,333%.

In addition to this incredible price escalation is the change in perception of petroleum being an unlimited resource to something that will be depleted within the next 30-75 years depending upon what expert you listen to. The price of oil is on a long term upward trend. There is little question that $100 barrel oil is in our short term future. While other fossil fuels may not have increased quite as much from a percentage basis, all fuel costs have increased dramatically during this same time period. While there are a number of alternative energy possibilities on the horizon, they have yet to become available at prices less than fossil fuels. [Note: there is no room in this column to discuss global warming or energy independence.]

What does this mean for the person in midlife looking at a career change? Think twice before going into a business that is energy dependent. Transportation businesses are already getting squeezed. If you want to have a business where you create or sell a product that needs to be shipped understand that shipping costs will only go up. Manufacturing and production businesses all take energy to produce goods. Businesses such as restaurants, hotels and theaters that people come to in hot and cold weather need heating or air conditioning provided for customers. If you do want to go into such a business, plan on your energy costs doubling in the early years of the business and make the pro forma of the business work around that assumption, or else enter it at your own risk.

If you are thinking about taking a job, consider the distance between the job location and where you live. Would $7.00 a gallon gasoline make you rethink your decision? To what degree is the industry you are considering entering energy dependent? In my vision of the future of this country over the next 20 years I see increased dependency upon high speed Internet connectivity, increased localism, and a trend toward smaller houses, cars, and offices.

I mentioned at the top of this column that the area of energy provides an opportunity. I think that the area of alternative energy presents the single greatest opportunity for wealth creation in the history of humanity. Just think about how wealthy John D. Rockefeller became because of oil. His initial customer base in the U.S. was several million. The customer base for products to replace oil and coal is now several billion people. The companies and individuals that can create, produce, and deliver new forms of alternative and renewable energy at competitive prices will reap untold riches.

This is not just an economic opportunity; it is a necessity for the survival of humanity. Think about it; a ready potential customer base of 5+ billion people who could buy your product and whose lives, and the lives of their children and grandchildren, depend upon it. Now that is an economic opportunity!