Diabetes Risk: It's Simple

Scientists have found that you don't need complicated models to figure out who'll get type 2 diabetes. You only need to know weight and height (= obesity), age, and parental history of diabetes.

Those factors alone are "significantly predictive" of subsequent type 2 diabetes. Adding in some other metabolic factors such as high blood pressure improved the prediction somewhat. But when the researchers added the results of complex lab tests -- such as glucose levels -- the predictions didn't improve.

The research should simplify family doctor's ability to predict diabetes risk in their patients. It also highlights the importance of exercise in limiting weight gain and diabetes risk.

Diabetes sufferers have an impaired ability to produce or use insulin, which means it's difficult for them to convert sugars and starches into energy.

Diabetes becomes a concern in midlife as weight gain and age, both risk factors, work against you. According to the American Diabetes Association, 0.2% of people under 20 have it while 9.6% of people over 20 suffer from it. 21% of people over 60 have diabetes. It's the sixth leading cause of death in the United States, and is a factor in many others, but is believed to be underreported.

Death isn't the only problem. Diabetes is correlated to subsequent Alzheimer's Disease (LifeTwo posts here, and here). It's also linked to poorer brain performance in general. Diabetes sufferers have been shown to do worse on brain performance tests than control groups.

An abstract of the study, "Prediction of Incident Diabetes Mellitus in Middle-aged Adults," is at the Archives of Internal Medicine here.

---
Other sources: Reuters report in Scientific American.