How to Avoid Being Outsourced, Disintermediated or Made Obsolete; Top 7 Macroeconomic Trends to Know

Thinking of changing careers? Most people do. But it's a big decision worthy of a great deal of soul searching and due diligence. To help you with the later, LifeTwo asked futurist David Houle to identify the most important macro trends that potential career changers must evaluate.

These are not your typical "Do you think you are qualified for that industry?" questions. We assume that you've already completed the very personal exercise of self evaluation determining what you love to do, what you are good at, what your financial goals might be, and where you want to work,. Houle's queries are aimed to allow you to judge the longterm potential of an industry. The last thing you want to do is undergo a gut-wrenching career change only to see it made obsolete by technology, outsourced to India, or disintermediated by new business models.

Anyone who is in an industry that has undergone a painful transition due to one of these trends knows the job losses and salary cuts that can result. U.S. auto manufacturing, the record industry, and the airline industry are just a few examples of industries that appeared to be blindsided by economic shocks but were actually easily predicted many years in advance. It is usually not a good idea to go into a shrinking industry and the newest entrants are usually the first to be shown the door and even if you make the cut, it is likely not going to be the experience you had hoped when you first decided to enter the industry.

With no further adieu, the key macro trends are:

1. The Flow to Global
2. The Flow to the Individual
3. Disintermediation
4. Place or No Place
5. Friction versus Frictionless?
6. 24/7 versus 9 to 5
7. Energy Dependence

1. The Flow to Global

Humanity is flowing to a new global integration. We have moved through the geographical orientations of family, tribe, town, state, and country, and now, due in part to our sheer numbers and our increasing electronic connectedness we have fully arrived at the time of global orientation. . It is generally accepted that we are in the process of becoming a global economy. This means that, unless the occupation you are choosing is locally oriented and focused, you have to consider the fact that to some degree, whatever you do for work will be influenced by the global economy. Markets are no longer protected, and the Internet has made work less place based.

2. The Flow to the Individual

Power is flowing from organizations to individuals. The explosion of choice, the growth of free agency, the technologies and dynamics that have moved us from hierarchies to networks, our ever growing electronic connectedness and its’ increasing speed have all help to migrate power from institutions to individuals. The individual is becoming the primary economic unit, the micro-micro that is combining with the macro-macro of the Flow to Global. We are becoming clearly distinct individuals that are all global citizens. It might no longer be necessary to join a group or company to practice one’s new career. The world is becoming less about being an employee, and more about being an independent contractor.

3. Disintermediation

Disintermediation, as discussed in earlier columns, is about the disappearance of the middle man. The Internet is the primary force of disintermediation today. Such occupations as stock broker and travel agent have been either eliminated or completely redefined in the past ten years due to this force. Entire businesses such as the music business, where the product used to be a physical product distributed through a price controlled retail model and is now distributed digitally either for free or on a more selective (singles versus albums) basis. Before entering a new career field, think carefully about whether this occupation is providing a middle man function that could be altered by disintermediation and the Internet.

4. Place or No Place

Commerce is migrating from physical to on-line. The rapidly expanding penetration of broadband or high speed Internet is creating the opportunity to telecommute, or work from anywhere. Do you want to be mobile and work from anywhere, perhaps home or your vacation home? This is possible now. Is it important for you to go to a physical space to work, or not? The old question used to be "Where do you work?". The new question is What do you do?" This is closely tied to the other trends.

5. Friction versus Frictionless

Think physical versus on-line. Do you want the economic transaction to be on-line or off-line. Increasingly there is choice. For example, one could get a masters degree entirely on-line (frictionless education) or could get in the car and drive to a campus and go to a physical classroom (friction). Can you create a product that exists digitally, in which case you can by-pass all the friction of transportation. If you create a physical product, do you need the friction of a physical store or not? This is tied to #7 as the less friction, the less energy, and in this age when global warming is a very serious threat, this becomes both a philosophical and economic consideration.

6. 24/7 Versus 9 to 5

We live in an ‘always on’ environment. Everything is available on-line 24 hours a day, many stores are open 24 hours a day, all electronic media is on 24 hours a day. Many people like the opportunity to work when they want, with the trade off that work may be done at all hours of the day. Many people like to have their work contained within the standard work day with a clear demarcation between work and play. This was not a choice to many 20 years ago. It now is. What is your preference?

7. Energy

Humanity wastes vast amounts of energy. Society is largely based upon the energy generated by fossil fuels. The cost of fossil fuels is on a consistent upward trend. All of this will change, must change, for humanity to survive. Do you want to be in a business that is energy dependent? If so, expect economic shock. This is tied to #5; can you accept the costs and consequences of a reliance on physical commerce requiring energy to function. What if the price of oil goes from the current $60 a barrel to an expected $100 a barrel or $125 a barrel? Conversely, the field of alternative energy and conservation innovation provides the opportunity for wealth creation unparalleled in the history of humanity. Some of the greatest wealth in the history of the world will be created around the coming breakthroughs on the energy front. Make sure you consider the real and hidden costs of energy in whatever you do.

It may seem like a lot of work to evaluate your potential new career on this basis but it will be far more work to extract yourself out of that industry if they find themselves on the wrong side of one of the above trends.

Subsequent columns will take a look at each one of these trends in more detail and will be linked from this post.