Forget 300 million, U.S. is heading toward 400 million! Retiring in a "megacity"

Think things are crowded now? Think cities are too big? Just wait. The United States is coming up on its 300 millionth resident and if you are 40 years old the U.S. population will be at 400 million when you hit 77. Just think what it will be like when you hit 100 or when your kids do.

While Europe and Japan are dealing with the crippling prospect of long-term population decreases (and the economic problems that accompany them) the U.S. is facing the opposite problem. If you are a baby boomer you might think that retirement planning involves contributing to your IRA and controlling your spending. This might work in an inert world, but if you believe what economists and demographers are telling us, move over and make room for a lot more people.

This population concern isn't like the Malthusian paranoia of yesteryear when experts were predicting shortages of everything from food to land. Instead of these almost-Apocalyptic scenarios, experts are taking a realistic look at what the country will look like with an additional 100 million people to house, feed and entertain.

LifeTwo suggests you consider what impact all of this will have on your retirement plans. Are you sure you want to live where you are now for the rest of your lives? Are the areas you'd think are wonderful for retirement now going to look as wonderful in twenty-five years? Are you in an area that will have all of the services necessary to provide for its aging citizens. One thing for certain, you aren't alone asking these questions--there will be an increase of 120% of retirement aged people in this new (and very populated) world.

Some thoughts:

First off, after dominating the workplace for four-plus decades, baby boomers will be largely out of the workplace, replaced mostly by immigrants. While it's true that the immigrants will be an additional cause of crowded cities, freeways and everything else, these new workers will also be the people funding social security for us and driving the U.S. economy--two very important issues for would-be retirees.

Second, despite what it might feel like (especially if you are stuck in rush-hour traffic), the United States isn't all that dense today. And relative to other countries, it still won't be considered dense when we hit 400 million. At that bigger number we will still only have a density of about 1/6th of Germany's. However, as anyone who's driven across the country knows, the U.S. population is not evenly-distributed and demographers don't expect this to materially change. It is believed that 50% of the country's population lives within 50 miles of the country's two coastlines. In the next 10 years another 25 million people are going to crowd into these narrow strips. These crowded areas are going to get much, much worse.

Coastal cities that are big now are going to get a new adjective applied to them, "mega". Megacities have populations of 10 million or more and will continue to drive unstoppable sprawl (current megacity Los Angeles can attest to that). The roadways of the megacities will be exceedingly crowded. Americans are driving 79% more than they did in 1982 even though the increase in new roadways has been only 3%. Given the financial straits of America's local and state governments, it's doubtful that new road building will have a chance of keeping pace with the demand driving demands.

Some economists believe that the market forces of lower cost of living (and just more room) will drive population growth away from the coastal strips. In the past 10 years, Utah and Idaho have grown by double the rate of the overall U.S. The big gains have been in states like Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. Exactly the kind of places many people are choosing to retire today because the lower cost and higher quality of living. However these advantages could easily change with continued double digit growth. Of course Americans are an unpredictable lot. While prices have skyrocketed on the coasts, the population of lower-cost states haven't benefited nearly as much as an economist might predict. The population of North Dakota has actually been declining. Even Ohio has a population that is barely growing.

With much unknown, what can someone contemplating retirement planning do? First, decide what you want out of retirement. Is it to continue working? Then you'll need to stay in an area in need of your services? Is it to be near your children (and perhaps one day grand children)? Then you'll need to think where they might be. Do you hate traffic and like open spaces? Anyway, you get the idea. Happy planning!

Note: if you are having trouble getting started, a good place to get the brainwaves going is hit the "retirement" tag below.

Update: a "futurist" perspective on hitting 300 from David Houle's "Evolution Shift"

Sources: WSJ (may require fee) and U.S. Census.gov

Additional reading (outside links): Foreign Policy's List of The World's Megacities and Technorati megacities population growth future