The Surge in Midlife Divorce

Divorce used to be something that happened to people well before they turned 40. No longer. The most-divorced group in the U.S. population is well into middle age.

Does that mean we'll see more midlife crises ... and the sometimes embarassing behavior that goes with it?

One thing is sure: the increase in midlife divorce is a significant and under-reported trend.

In 1979 the most-divorced age groups were men 30-34 and women 35-44. Now for both men and women it's 45-54 year olds. In 2000, the most recent year for which good data is available, almost 15% of men and 18% of women in that age group were divorced. About another 2.4% of men and 3.1% of women were separated.

The groups on either side -- 35-44 and 55-64 -- are tied for second highest, with about 15% of men and 18% of women in each separated or divorced.

That is far more people who are middle aged and divorced than we've ever seen in this country.

Our chart below shows the change from 1979, when there were fewer and younger divorced people, to the turn of the millennium. The curves are the percentage of people in each age group who are divorced.

(click on the image for a larger version in a new window)

You can see that since 1979, about the same percentage of people in their early 30's and younger are divorced. But far more middle aged people -- 2x to 3x -- are divorced now.

That data is based on the last census, but the news since 2000 may be no better. Data on the number of divorces is collected in the U.S. only by the states and not recorded centrally. But looking across the Atlantic, in the last several years the UK has seen a surge in midlife divorces. While the overall number of divorces per 1,000 married people increased 2.4% from 2000 to late 2005, for 35-44 year olds it rose 12.9% (to almost 22 divorces per 1,000 married people) and for 45+ rose 19.2% (to 6.2 per 1,000).

The UK stats also show something missing in U.S. data: median age at time of divorce. In 1981 the median age for women was 31; now it's a few months shy of 40. For men it was 35; in 2005 it was 42.

The U.S. numbers reflect a similar trend. That's a significant change.

A recent article about a spate of celebrity midlife divorces in the UK rounded up some speculation on causes:

- later marriage means later divorce;

- longevity: at 45, people are now facing another 40 years with their spouse rather than 20 or so a few generations ago. They don't want forty years of unhappiness and they may think they can have a second chance with someone else;

- increased attention to personal happiness means less willingness to stay in a bad marriage;

- women are less financially dependent on men.

All fall into the category of "interesting hypothesis" or at most "correlation" rather than solidly proven precipitating factor.

Some of the impacts we expect: more complicated divorces; more middle-aged dating; more intricate family relationships.

What about more midlife crises? It's a possibility. Divorce is popularly thought to be a trigger for midlife crisis. Although the notion of "midlife crisis" is fuzzy and hard to distinguish from "a crisis in midlife," a significant emotional trauma like divorce can lead to depression or re-evaluation or any of the many other behaviors and changes commonly lumped under the rubric "midlife crisis."

So, yes, this surge in midlife divorce should lead to an increased number of transiently (we hope) unhappy people -- but perhaps to more people determined to make up for lost time and make themselves happier. Perhaps something good will come out of this after all.

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Data sources:
US:
2000 Census Table 51
Statistical Abstract of the U.S. 1979
Census 2000 Brief: Marital Status
UK:
Statistics.UK.gov Table 9.3